Perhaps you might join me in wondering how sponsored researchers managed to convince FCC Chairman Pai and others that network neutrality regulation singularly caused a near immediate drop in infrastructure investment by U.S. carriers.  How do you isolate the variable of “regulation” from, for example, the investment cycle in migrating from 4G to next generation 5G wireless plan.

Set out below, are two FCC charts that track capex incurred by the major U.S. wireless carriers from 2010 to 2019:

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Source: https://www.fcc.gov/20th-mobile-wireless-competition-report-quick-facts

 From 2010 to 2019, the FCC toggled between imposing network neutrality requirements and eliminating them. For purposes of our direct comparison of a regulatory or deregulatory action and subsequent impact on investment, keep these years in mind:

 2010, the FCC approved the first FCC Open Internet Order creating network neutrality rules and regulations; 2014, the D.C. Circuit partially reverses the FCC on grounds that some of the network neutrality requirements imposed common carrier duties on private, non-common carriers; 2015, the FCC respond to the appellate court reversal with the 2015 Open Internet Order reclassifying broadband Internet as Title II regulated common carrier telecommunications service; 2016, the D.C. Circuit defers to the FCC and largely upholds the Commission; 2017-2018, the Ajit Pai led FCC signals its priority in reversing the 2015 Open Internet Order and does so in 2018 with the Restoring Internet Freedom Order.

Does wireless carrier investment correlate up or down with the changing regulatory regime? It sure does not look like it to me.  Even stakeholders, when communicating with buy side Wall Street analysts, emphasize competitive necessity and the business cycle for next generation network investment. 

Regulation does not matter significantly, until it becomes the sole predictor of investment in a different forum.