Through
mostly unofficial channels, Comcast has alleged that Netflix wanted
transmission bitrates to decline ostensibly to accrue greater impact at the FCC. A major official at Comcast told me that Netflix
wanted to show a deterioration in ISP delivery speeds so that it could derail
FCC approval of the Comcast-Time Warner Cable acquisition. This official alleged that Cogent had a similar
strategy.
Would
Netflix risk upsetting many of its subscribers to achieve questionable
additional persuasion points with the FCC?
In light of
the trigger-quick discomfort broadband subscribers feels when real or artificial
congestion occurs, I find the Comcast claim hard to believe. Few companies, outside commercial aviation, would
risk ticking off their customers to achieve a political point. So perhaps the answer lies in determining
whether Netflix has so much in common with the airlines, that it too can
degrade service to nudge/push customers into paying more for same service.
The
airlines can degrade standard economy service and unbundle components of what
used to be considered part of an airfare in light of limited competition. Travelers cannot readily avoid add-on fees by
shifting carriers. Can Netflix subscribers
vote with their currency and shift allegiance if the company’s video streams
become a slide show?
The answer:
it depends. Increasingly one can find much—but not all—of the content available
from Netflix. Disintermediation of
cable television operators has become an option for some content, but note that
the cable ISP constitutes the only double digit megabit per second option for
most consumers. Comcast and other retail
ISPs have raised broadband subscription rates and these ventures probably with become
more aggressive should content disintermediation become more prevalent.
Netflix
does not strike me as a company willing to risk subscriber churn based on poor video
quality. The company paid quite high
tuition to learn that it could not raise rates overnight by unbundling online
content delivery from postal delivery.
Would Netflix risk ticking off its customers based on a view that now
they are so hooked on the company’s content that they would tolerate poor
delivery quality?